By : Abhinav Malhotra, Associate Editor-ICN World
A detailed analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war and its long- lasting Implications
“The World is the great Gymnasium where you come to make yourselves strong”
-Swami Vivekananda
CHANDIGARH : Certainly, this resplendent quote by Swami Vivekananda Ji has been absorbed by the 21st Century World leaders in the wrong sense. Swami Vivekananda refers to this globe as a Gymnasium that makes an individual strong and resilient enough to face all odds and still lead a blissful life. But here the commanders are flexing their muscles using all the gym equipment to quell each other and make themselves the stronger ones.
The Russia – Ukraine war has been in the news since February 2022. The Protagonists of this warfare are Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. To some, Putin may not be wrong but to many Zelenskyy is the Victim. So let us first understand the root cause of this horrendous act being performed.
Here I am enlisting a few names of Leaders & terms for a better understanding of the situation before jumping into the intricacies.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin: The current president of Russia was a former intelligence officer and also the Prime Minister for two terms: 1999-2000 & 2008-2012. In retrospect, he waged a war against Georgia and annexed Crimea too. On 30 September 2015, President Putin authorized Russian military intervention in the Syrian civil war (Link in references for my Article on Syrian War).
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: A former Comedian, Volodymyr was sworn in as the President of Ukraine on 20 May 2019. He worked in television series and Movies in Ukraine before taking up this mammoth responsibility. Zelenskyy had assured his country of ending the longstanding Conflict with Russia which has its roots in the 2014 Annexation of Crimea. Unfortunately, the series of events really don’t seem to be going the right way.
Revolution of Dignity: Also known as the Maiden Uprising, it was a wave of Civil Unrest in Kyiv, Ukraine which began in November 2013. The protests were ignited by the Ukrainian Government’s sudden decision to not sign the European Union – Ukraine association agreement and instead choose closer ties to Russia. The People of Kyiv united to oust the Russian-backed president, Viktor Yanukovych. Following the pro-western Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine in 2014, Putin seized eastern regions of the nation and annexed Crimea. All this gave the citizens of Ukraine enough reasons to tilt toward the west.
NATO: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is a Military Alliance between 30 Countries formed in the aftermath of World War II. Headquartered in Brussels Belgium, NATO operates on the principle of Collective Defence enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
Chronology of the Current War:
The ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia can be simply understood with the help of the below-prepared Chart.
The situation as of 3rd June 2022 – Day 100 of the War
Ongoing Scenario
- Role of The USA in the ongoing lethal war situation is highly significant. As per News reports, they are openly backing Ukraine in its efforts in the fight against Russia. Weapon systems manufactured and provided by the US and Europe have played a significant role in dampening Russia’s advance.
- The Rest of the World: Sanctions have been levied on Russia by majority of NATO Members. Germany has blocked the Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline from Russia. The US has barred Russia from making debt payments using the $600m it holds in US banks, making it harder for Russia to repay its international loans. Russia’s central bank assets have been frozen, to stop it from using the $630bn of reserves it has in foreign currencies. Major Russian banks have been removed from the international financial messaging system Swift, which will delay payments to Russia for its oil and gas exports. The US is banning all Russian oil and gas imports. The UK will phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022.
- Battle of Sievierodonetsk was a military engagement in the wider battle of Donbas of the Eastern Ukraine offensive during the current war. Sievierodonetsk acted as the administrative centre of Luhansk which was inevitably captured by Russia on 24 June 2022.
The image below represents the revised Economic Growth Forecasts by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Role of India
In what can be called a fair balancing act, India under the able leadership of Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has not been very open in taking sides.
- On the 2nd Of March, the United Nations General Assembly voted, 141 to 5, on a resolution condemning Russia for invading Ukraine. India had abstained from the vote.
- Mr. Jaishankar quotes that New Delhi urges cessation of hostilities, return to dialogue, and national sovereignty. He added, “Our effort today is to stabilise economic transactions between India and Russia because this is very important for us. Russia is a very important partner in a variety of areas”.
- India expressed its gratitude for “Operation Ganga” when Indian Nationals were brought back to India from the war-torn regions.
- The Bilateral Trade between India and Russia is roughly $12 Billion which both countries have agreed to continue via alternative payment methods.
- India has handed over 7725 kg of Humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
My Take on the Situation
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 3.8 million Ukrainians fled the country between February 24 and March 27. That’s about 8.8 percent of Ukraine’s total population. People have been rendered homeless, children have lost their early days of school, Businesses and services have been under lock and key, and the retirees have to once again hunt for their daily bread. As per the World Bank’s report, Ukraine’s economy has shrunk by 45.1% this year, while Russia’s economy has already plunged into a deep recession and the output is projected to contract by 11.2% in 2022. Ukraine alone has lost approximately $600 Billion as a result of Russia’s invasion. The Russian Stock market is closed.
The Whole Point of this war being fought between these two nations is beyond the understanding of any common citizen who resides in either of the two countries. Any working individual or businessman will surely not be happy enough to see his Company or business suffering just because the Top Bosses of their Countries are unable to come to a legitimate settlement over the Geopolitical differences. A few questions that arise in any rational individual’s mind are:
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- What is the fault of the bloke, that he/she suffers the cost of this war?
- Where are the So-Called International Peace-keeping Agencies?
- Are the sanctions enough to stop this broad daylight Murder of Humanity?
- If tomorrow the war ends, how do you console that family who lost their son on the Border?
- Is the war becoming a playground for International players to fight a proxy war?
While these questions surely go unanswered The War is still on.
References:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/2/timeline-ukraines-turbulent-history-since-independence-in-1991
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volodymyr_Zelenskyy#2019_presidential_campaign
https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2022/02/16/what-did-ukraines-revolution-in-2014-achieve
https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-russia-invade-ukraine-why-b2106626.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2022/6/3/timeline-the-first-100-days-of-russias-war-in-ukraine
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/18/world/europe/russia-ukraine-timeline.html
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/slideshows/a-timeline-of-the-russia-ukraine-conflict?slide=9
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Sievierodonetsk_(2022)
https://www.vox.com/22989379/russia-ukraine-war-putin-zelenskyy-us-nato-explainer-questions
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/indias-position-is-clear-on-russia-ukraine-crisis-jaishankar/articleshow/91094358.cms
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-offers-help-to-end-russia-ukraine-conflict/article65297066.ece
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-provides-7-725-kg-of-humanitarian-aid-to-ukraine-101651854620406.html
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/10/russian-invasion-to-shrink-ukraine-economy-by-45-percent-this-year
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/war-in-ukraine-lives-and-livelihoods-lost-and-disrupted
The Syrian War – Article : https://www.icnnational.com/the-manufactured-catastrophe/
