By: Rakesh Lohumi (Sr. Editor-ICN Group)
With the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting a warmer than normal spring and a scorching hot summer the problem of water scarcity is likely to worsen , particularly in the water stressed regions of the country, during pre-monsoon season.
The IMD’s Hot Weather Season (March to May) outlook for 2018 indicate s that the trend of rising average temperature witnessed at the beginning of March will continue and average temperatures over many of the subdivisions from northwest and adjoining central India are likely to remain above normal by more than 1 degree Celcius.
There is a 52 percent chance of maximum temperatures hitting the peak between March and May in the core heat wave zone covering states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa and Telangana and meteorological subdivisions of Marathwada, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab,Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Gujarat and Arunachal Pradesh may record seasonal average maximum temperatures higher by 1 °C or more than normal.
However, average seasonal maximum temperatures may be lower by 0.5°C over Kerala, Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka. Remaining subdivisions are likely to experience maximum temperature anomalies ranging between 0.5°C and 1°C.
Thus, people across the country, particularly the northern and western regions, will have to remain prepared for blistering heat until the arrival of monsoon. The oppressing heat wave conditions apart, the water scarcity problem become more acute in the most areas in the core heat wave zone owing significant shortfall in winter precipitation.
The situation could be alarming hill states of Uttarakhand and HImachal Pradesh which hardly received any snow during winter. The deficiency in winter rain and snow in Himachal Pradesh was as high as 72 percent and the situation in Uttrakhand was worse with drought-like conditions persisting throughout.
Last year the Union Ministry of Water Resources had identified 15 states as prone to drought and likely to face water shortage. A large part of the country faces perennial shortage of water during summer and a hotter than normal summer may makes things worse for the people over the next three months.
In hill states like Himachal and Uttarakhand the streams, khads , springs and other natural sources of drinking water either dry up completely during summer or experience drastic reduction in discharge. The monsoon has been deficient and winter rains have been all but a complete failure..
A redeeming feature is that the IMD picked up early signals of moderate La Nina and that means that the country may experience a normal southwest monsoon.
